The times they are a-changin' electorally, it seems. Hawaii, a virtual one-party state since 1962, is now lookingly shockingly iffy for the Kerry college vote column after two polls show Bush slightly ahead. Those who have been paying attention (which certainly doesn't include me) could perhaps have foretold this, however - in 2002 the Aloha State voted in a Republican governor for the first time since the Kennedy administration. Meanwhile, at the other end of the map, Delaware is losing its reputation as a bellwether state as the northern counties become increasingly Democratized by Philadelphia and New Jersey suburban commuters: "If you want to figure out where the First State's headed now, ask the guy from Trenton who just moved in next door."
Posted by Alan Allport at October 25, 2004 11:16 AMPlease tell me "bellwether" doesn't equal "Republican"?
Posted by: Martha Bridegam at October 25, 2004 11:53 AMBellwether = indicator of overall trends. Up till 2000, Delaware voters had famously picked the sucessful Presidential Candidate in every election since 1952.
Posted by: Alan Allport at October 25, 2004 12:09 PMWell, yes, but I was wondering, if a state does become more Democratic does that ipso facto mean it's becoming less of a national indicator?
Posted by: Martha Bridegam at October 25, 2004 12:22 PMIf it becomes a safe Democratic state, then certainly - surely that's obvious, isn't it? I mean, either Alaska or Massachussets is going to choose the winner this time, but you wouldn't ascribe that to their representative quality, would you? The point about Delaware was that it used to be (or appear to be anyway) a microcosm of the whole country's mood. If it starts to habitually vote Democratic then clearly it's not going to be as reliable a general indicator in the long-term; unless the Democrats win every single election, that is.
Posted by: Alan Allport at October 25, 2004 12:32 PMBut who said "safe Democratic state"? The headline I see begins "It's up for grabs..."
Posted by: Martha Bridegam at October 25, 2004 01:26 PMRead the article!
Posted by: Alan Allport at October 25, 2004 01:35 PMOk, ok...
Posted by: Martha Bridegam at October 25, 2004 07:48 PMAh the Martha/Alan banter. How I've missed it...
Posted by: Graeme Burk at October 26, 2004 06:54 AMGlad you're still with us Graeme. Why don't you post an item already?
Posted by: Martha Bridegam at October 26, 2004 07:50 AMI've been recovering from an operation, and I've had to conserve resources. I'll post something sometime soon.
Posted by: Graeme Burk at October 26, 2004 03:21 PMJust had a look at yr site. It must have been scary and godawful. Best wishes for yr recovery.
Posted by: Martha Bridegam at October 26, 2004 04:41 PM