Horizon

I remember watching on NOVA or somesuch program a while back about a curious connection between UFO sightings and earthquakes. The theory was that when two plates are on the verge of shifting, they begin to throw up spark-like packets of light that are visible in the sky as willo-the-wisps, triggering a slew of UFO reports. Apparently big earthquakes are often immediately preceded by such clusters of sightings. The researchers were hoping that this would be a means of predicting imminent earthquakes.

I tried to google up something on this, but believe me, you get the strangest results when you type in 'UFO's' and 'earthquakes'.

The continuous tremors are "a kind of chatter" emanating from a depth of 20 to 40 kilometers below the surface...

Chatter precedes an earthquake. Intelligence pros hear lots of chatter before a terror attack. At the office we note an increase in chatter prior to lay-offs. Get rid of the chatter and maybe our problems will be solved.

How about chitter?

It's difficult to take a chittering fault seriously.

So do you think Californians might develop a different attitude to life if our natural disasters became predictable?

Are you kidding? If the spectre of being buried under six feet of broken glass at a moment's notice doesn't discourage people from wandering around downtown SF, then what could possibly phase them?? Californians are totally nuts.

Must be that phisher "Alan Hogue" person. The real Alan Hogue would have written "faze"...

(...but does anyone know *why* "faze" is correct? I sure don't.)

Re: Californians being nuts -- well, I just kind of wondered if having *predictable* natural disasters would make them more provident as opposed to yer currently typical Californian hand-to-mouth thinking.

Must be that phisher "Alan Hogue" person. The real Alan Hogue would have written "faze"...

(...but does anyone know *why* "faze" is correct? I sure don't.)

Drat. I've done it again.

It's not related to "phase", that's why. It's related to an Old English word, "fésian", meaning to drive. It's a variant of "feeze" which appears to have been in use through the 17th century. That's what the OED says.

Well, let's say earthquakes are reliably predictable but not far enough in advance to make evacuation possible (say an hour). Would that change people's behavior? Probably not much. It might make it worse because people might feel safer knowing that they will have enough time to brace themselves in a doorway or run outside. Some enterprising sorts would build reinforced shelters into their basements, maybe. It might encourage the building of communal shelters too.

If major earthquakes could be predicted years in advance, what then? Perhaps a trickle of people moving out of the area as the time approached, last minute construction by the government of shelters? More retrofitting projects as the big day neared? Beyond this I suspect not much would change, keeping in mind that a longer range prediction is not likely to be very precise.

After all, we already know that a very big earthquake is likely to hit in the next 30 years. If no one's thinking about it now then I doubt improved predictions will make a dramatic difference.

After all, we already know that a very big earthquake is likely to hit in the next 30 years. If no one's thinking about it now then I doubt improved predictions will make a dramatic difference.

I dunno. Smokers all know that their habit is bad for them and will probably reduce their life expectancy in some vague way. What difference would it make, though, if you were told that you will definitely die on January 15th 2026 if you keep smoking and definitely die on April 29th 2035 if you don't?

That of course would have some effect, although the analogy isn't that good -- there's a pretty big difference between being told an earthquake will hit on one day and being told you will certainly die on that day.